Posted 10:34 AM by Robert

Strange Doings At The Poles And 43d Street

Steven Milloy locates more junk science (this time with a new twist) at the New York Times:

If you look at the temperature trends for the Arctic region since 1880, it appears that the Arctic generally warmed somewhat until about 1938. From 1938 until about 1966, the Arctic cooled to about its 1918 temperature level. Then, between 1966 and 2003, the Arctic warmed up to just shy of its 1938 temperature. But in 2004, the Arctic temperature again spiked downward.

Now if the 1880-1938 warming trend had continued up until this day, there certainly would be some significant warming in the Arctic region to talk about. From 1918 to 1938, alone, the Arctic warmed by 2.5 degrees Centigrade. But the actual temperature trend is much different, showing that there’s been hardly any overall temperature change in the Arctic since 1938. ....

And even when the Arctic re-warmed between 1966 and 2003, the warming occurred much less aggressively (about 50 percent less) than the 1918-1938 warming and at about the same rate as the period 1880-1938, despite much higher greenhouse gas levels in the 1966-2003 time frame. ...

Over the last 30 years, atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide increased by about 15 percent, from about 328 parts per million to about 372 parts per million. But the Antarctic temperature trend for that period indicates a slight cooling. This observation contrasts sharply with the relatively steep Antarctic warming observed from 1949 to 1974, which was accompanied by a much more modest increase in greenhouse gas concentrations.

Posted 9:14 AM by Robert

Not The Getty Villa

What is going on at the New York Times?

This is the Getty Villa. And this is the Getty Villa. And this is the Getty Villa.

But this is NOT the Getty Villa. It is the Villa De Leon, which everyone who knows anything at all about the Los Angeles area is aware is the private home that clueless tourists often mistake for the Getty Villa.

Clueless tourists, including the New York Times, which has been misidentifying a picture of the Villa De Leon as the Getty Villa in an article on the Getty. The article is about as insightful as the picture.

The two villas do not even closely resemble each other. The Getty Villa has no round turret (very prominent on the Villa De Leon). And while the Villa De Leon is a Palladian (that is, Venetian) style mansion, the Getty Villa is a copy of the Villa of the Papyri, a 1st Century Roman structure from the buried city of Herculaneum.

Details. Details.

Posted 5:22 PM by Robert

Rove Apparently Clear II

As noted in a prior post, the mainstream media have been drawing all the wrong conclusions from the circumstances surrounding Karl Rove's fourth visit appearance before Mr. Fitzgerald's grand jury. Indeed, only this morning the New York Times took front-page space to report breathlessly that some at the White House had "the jitters" over Mr. Rove's future. Baloney - at least with respect to anyone who really knows anything.

Now ordinary Department of Justice procedures seem to be catching up with events, and even the Times has had to replace its silly "jitters' screed with something that must be much more disappointing for the Gray Lady:

Mr. Rove's lawyer, Robert D. Luskin, told reporters that Mr. Fitzgerald "has not advised Mr. Rove that he is a target of the investigation and affirmed that he has made no decision concerning charges." Mr. Luskin went on to say that the prosecutor "has indicated that he does not anticipate the need for Mr. Rove's further cooperation."

The job of an investigating prosecutor is not to pop surprise indictments out of the grand jury. Department of Justice guidelines are very clear on the matter: if Mr. Rove were a "target" of this investigation he should have been told of that before testifying. As the Department of Justice grand jury guidelines put it:

It is the policy of the Department of Justice to advise a grand jury witness of his or her rights if such witness is a "target" or "subject" of a grand jury investigation. ... A "target" is a person as to whom the prosecutor or the grand jury has substantial evidence linking him or her to the commission of a crime and who, in the judgment of the prosecutor, is a putative defendant. ... ...[T]he Department of Justice continues its longstanding policy to advise witnesses who are known "targets" of the investigation that their conduct is being investigated for possible violation of Federal criminal law.

What is happening to Mr. Rove is a very positive sign for him personally, despite the most fervent hopes and wishes of his agitated detractors.

Of course, other people might be at risk, including, perhaps reporters - and perhaps even a public corporation or publisher.

Posted 3:59 PM by Robert

Yale v Harvard (And The New York Times)

The New York Times reports:

Harvard University announced today that it had hired Mohamed A. El-Erian....[,who] succeeds Jack R. Meyer, the hugely successful fund manager for Harvard, who stepped down Sept. 30 ... When Mr. Meyer took over the Harvard fund in 1990, it was worth $5 billion, and in June of this year, it was valued at $25.9 billion, with growth far outpacing any other university fund. In fiscal year 2005, the fund achieved a total return of 19.2 percent, Harvard officials said today.

With growth far outpacing any other university fund? Is that right? Well, the Yale Daily News has a completely different story:

Yale posted a 22.3 percent return on its endowment during the past fiscal year, beating all of the peer institutions that have reported their returns thus far as it grew to $15.2 billion. Though Harvard's endowment is larger overall, totaling $25.9 billion at year's end, it earned only a 19.2 percent return on its endowment during that period. .... During the past decade, Yale's endowment grew at an average rate of 17.4 percent, compared to Harvard's average annual return of 16.1 percent ...

But the really pathetic thing here is that the state of reliability of the New York Times has declined to the point where one really doesn't hesitate to assume that the student-run newspaper in New Haven has got the right story.

Perhaps the reader is concerned that the time periods don't exactly match? After all, Mr. Meyer has been running the Harvard Fund for more than 10 years, so maybe his big lead was racked up between 1990 and 1995? No. Here's what Fortune magazine reports:

When it comes to running money, though, [David F. Swensen, who runs Yale University's $15 billion endowment] and Meyer are much more closely matched. Swensen, 51, has managed Yale's endowment for two decades and built one of the most spectacular investment records on the planet—up 16.1% a year (while the S&P 500 index gained 12.3%). "Yale has the best returns of any endowment anywhere," he is quick to tell you. Meyer, 60, can't argue with that. Since he got the job at Harvard in 1990—thanks in part to a glowing recommendation from Swensen—he has trailed his Connecticut rival 15% annually to 15.5% (vs. 10.6% for the S&P 500, through June 30, 2004).

Fortune reports Swensen outperformed Meyer from 1990 to 2004 on average, and the YDN reports Swensen outperformed Meyer by 22.3% to 19.2% in FY2005.

So Swensen (Yale) has obviously outperformed Meyer (Harvard) on average from 1990 (when Meyer took the job) to date.

There may be others besides Yale that outperformed Harvard during Mr. Meyer's tenure, I haven't checked that.

Posted 8:21 AM by Robert

The Molecules of Style

David Gelernter today is celebrating Strunk and White's "The Elements of Style" in OpinionJournal, and defending that book from some who love it badly. I like "The Elements of Style," but it can also drive me to distraction. Professor Gelernter says, "If the English language is one of the finest homes ever devised for the human spirit, "Elements" is the best guided house tour we've got." Well, no. Maybe that sentence is true if one adds to it the phrase "... for those whose writing should resemble that found in the better New York literary magazines of the twentieth century."

That's not a small category of writing. Most business letters and memoranda are included and, obviously, most newsmedia writing. But the only purpose of a writing guide is to help a writer to achieve the effect the writer desires to have on the intended reader. In other words, a style guide facilitates an intimate relationship, even in business or public writing. "The Elements of Style" is often a clinical third person in that bed.

For example, Professor Gelernter correctly notes that E.B. White and his versions of "The Elements of Style" defended the use of the traditional "he" against gender neutral constructs such as "he or she," and that White didn't care about thereby giving offense. That's fine for a writer in a sparkling, min-century literary magazine. But a writer very seldom desires to offend his or her reader even for what E.B. White considers a good cause. And it is a fact that many people - especially, but not only, women - will be offended by the traditional construct. Or, worse, the reader will view the writer as clueless. I conclude that most writing should employ the awkward gender neutral constructs - although I strongly disagree with the social attitudes that lead to that conclusion.

"The Elements of Style" is not just dangerous when in contact with modern political and social developments. Applied as it was intended to be, "The Elements of Style" produces a document that is efficient, realistic and friendly, with apparent clarity: a clean, well-lighted prose. That's a good thing - except when it isn't.

In "A Street Car Named Desire" Mitch confronts Blanch Dubois (William's alter ego) for managing to be with him only in poor light, which Blanch does because she has misrepresented her age. Mitch tears off a paper lantern that she had placed over a light bulb. Blanch famously screams, "I don't want realism. I want magic, MAGIC! Magic is what I try to give to people. I do misrepresent things to them. I don't tell the truth. I tell what OUGHT to be the truth. And if that's sinful, let me be damned for it. Don't turn the light on!"

Clarity is not always the point, even for beginning writers and in the most public writing, even where the reader craves clarity. When obscurity is the effect the writer intends to produce on the reader, "The Elements of Style" fails badly. It is likely that most writers and successful people want to be obscure much of the time. ("Don't worry Jim, if that question comes up, I'll just confuse them.")

Yes, it is probably the case that most employers prefer clarity in employee writing, although that desire probably wanes considerably when it comes to memoranda opposing counsel may later desire to see in high-stakes litigation. Conversely, a subordinate is often well served by providing something clear and crisp to superiors on-the-go. But not always. A subordinate will sometimes prefer not to have his or her thoughts easily called to account - that is, prefer more "magic." In those cases, "The Elements of Style" can seem more like an addendum to a corporate employee handbook (which it often is) than an aid to the writer.

My reservations with "The Elements of Style" do not end with its sometimes poor fit with writer strategies. It's implied criticism of great stylists, from whom even the beginner has much to learn, is loathsome. Yes, E. B. White admitted that the rules of "The Elements of Style" should not be applied rigidly or "inappropriately." But these are defensive tautologies, and the book may as well include a disclaimer like: "This book says it is not to be used to create bad results, so this book can never be said to have produced bad results." Hooey. That kind of disclaimer wouldn't spare the manufacturer of a metal step ladder from liability, and it doesn't undo the fact that this book strongly tends to produce that clean, well-lighted prose and a comfort like that of a nice diner in a dark neighborhood.

Setting aside all the supposed, generally meaningless exceptions ("you can try to write like Shakespeare when you can write as well as Shakespeare"), consider for a moment what would become Portia's lines from "The Merchant of Venice:"

The quality of mercy is not strain'd,
It droppeth as the gentle rain from heaven
Upon the place beneath: it is twice blest;
It blesseth him that gives and him that takes:
'Tis mightiest in the mightiest: it becomes
The throned monarch better than his crown;
His sceptre shows the force of temporal power, The attribute to awe and majesty, Wherein doth sit the dread and fear of kings;
But mercy is above this sceptred sway; It is enthroned in the hearts of kings,
It is an attribute to God himself;
And earthly power doth then show likest God's
When mercy seasons justice.

Put through "The Elements of Style" meat grinder, this becomes something like:

"Even kings should give their mercy generously, and so should you. God says so."

It's not that "The Elements of Style" is completely inconsistent with literary writing. But that book is far more consistent with a charming story about a girl and her spider and pig than it is to, say, "Tristam Shandy."

Posted 6:32 AM by Robert

Another Looming Miers Disaster II

It is nothing short of astonishing that anyone could view this post as a "defense" of the Harriet Miers nomination, or as arguing that she should be confirmed, still less that the Man Without Qualities is a "supporter" of that nomination.

Yet, there it is and is and is.

As this blog has noted in connection with the Miers nomination several times: While I have not made up my mind on Harriet Miers, I do find many of the arguments advanced by the critics of the nomination to be curious and, in the case of the arguments discussed in my prior post linked above, nasty, personal and highly counterproductive. That post points out possible consequences of such nasty and personal attacks on this woman or anyone: Personal alienation from her critics fostering alienation from the principles held by those critics.

Most people would be pretty hard put to spend a pleasant dinner with someone who called her nomination "scandalous" and "a joke" and worse. As for such personal alienation fostering message drift, I don't know if Harriet Miers is prone to that or not. But I do think that (1) it is likely she will be confirmed, regardless of what her critics say, (2) personal and nasty attacks are not helpful, and do not clarify the problem of getting her nomination in focus, and (3) whatever her propensity to message drift may be, personal and nasty attacks from the right will maximize it - which is perverse.

Would Charles Krauthammer test a new bullet-proof vest by having his wife shoot him in the chest with a 45? If he were true to the tenor of his column, the answer would have to be"yes."

Nor have I suggested that Clarence Thomas might have been prone to message drift absent the personal and nasty attacks on him from the left - but those attacks spared us whatever risk there may have been. What, exactly, do Ms. Miers critics point to prior to Justice Thomas' appointment that proved to their satisfaction that he was immune to what David Frum refers to as "transformation" by anger, abuse, sweet inducements and blandishments? Absolutely nothing sensible. Mr. Frum, for example, argues that "it is simply reckless for any conservative president to take a hazard on anything other than a known quantity of the highest intellectual and personal excellence." Nothing in the record proved Clarence Thomas to fit that description prior to his nomination to the degree Ms. Miers' critics are now demanding. By the standards now advanced by many of Harriet Miers' critics, the nomination of Clarence Thomas should have been summarily rejected. And if conservatives had savagely criticized his nomination, called it a "scandal" and a "joke," pointedly ignored his considerable talents and personally attacked him, I would not want to wager how he (or anyone experiencing such things) might have reacted. But he is now on track to becoming one of the greats.

It is worth noting that Ms. Miers' critics do not argue that she is unsound, only that there is an unacceptable risk that she is unsound. The savage, demeaning and personal attacks on Ms. Miers greatly increase whatever risks may exist - and would increase those risks for any candidate whatsoever. And anyone arguing to the contrary just doesn't pay enough attention to human nature.

I very much worry about how firm "convictions" are if they are swayed by personal grievances (or charm). And I am concerned (although not convinced) that Ms. Miers may be of that sort. I have repeatedly noted that I have not made up my mind whether she is a good choice, or even an acceptable choice. But I certainly do not agree with those critics who seem to have reached the conclusion that if she isn't ideal, then it's OK to throw the kitchen sink at her. It's nothing short of hilarious (in a dark way, but still hilarious) that the agitation among her critics has reached the point where criticism of even the most counterproductive, distracting, overheated and plainly fallacious arguments against her is seen as a "defense" and "support" of her nomination.

Posted 8:07 PM by Robert

Anthony Kennedy, And The Judge He Is Today

Was Anthony Kennedy a "stealth candidate?" Was he "transformed" after he joined the Court?

Solid Brendan Miniter (writing in OpinionJournal) says that Justice Kennedy was a "stealth candidate":

The shortcoming of stealth candidates has long been apparent. Anthony Kennedy, whom President Reagan nominated after Judge Bork's defeat, hasn't moved the court to the right.

Talented and perceptive David Frum comments:

There have just been too many instances of seeming conservatives being sent to the high Court, only to succumb to the prevailing vapors up there: O'Connor, Kennedy, Souter. Given that record, it is simply reckless for any conservative president to take a hazard on anything other than a known quantity of the highest intellectual and personal excellence. The pressures on a Supreme Court justice to shift leftward are intense. There is the negative pressure of the vicious, hostile press that legal conservatives must endure. And there are the sweet little inducements--the flattery, the invitations to conferences in Austria and Italy, the lectureships at Yale and Harvard--that come to judges who soften and crumble. Harriet Miers is a taut, nervous, anxious personality. It is hard for me to imagine that she can endure the anger and abuse--or resist the blandishments--that transformed, say, Anthony Kennedy into the judge he is today.

But regardless of whether one views Justice Kennedy as a disaster, is it correct that he was a "stealth candidate" or that he was "transformed" on the Court?

In my opinion, Anthony Kennedy was anything but a "stealth" candidate. According to his biography, he joined the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals in 1975 - where he took what is often called a "narrow case-by-case approach" without broad conclusions and principles. In other words, his opinions were a complete mess, just as many of his opinions have been on the Supreme Court. He taught constitutional law at McGeorge - which almost certainly left indications of his more personal views, had anyone cared to investigate them thoroughly. At the time, many of his liberal Ninth Circuit "opponents" said they admired Judge Kennedy's Ninth Circuit opinions and proclaimed him "pragmatic and fair-minded." He was for many years a major player on the Sacramento social circuit and a "networker." Many "knew" him, and "everyone" liked him (dear God, Roberts!). He was appointed to the Supreme Court in 1988 - with unanimous Senate vote. So even the most liberal Senators voted for him.

One big problem with calling Kennedy a "stealth" candidate is that it implies that a full 13 years as a federal appellate judge, a stint as an academic constitutional law teacher, admiration by paleo-liberals Ninth Circuit judges, approval by the most liberal Democrats in the Senate, and the existence of a wide circle of friends familiar with his personality, legal views and politics just wasn't enough to indicate what kind of justice he would become. Really? Then what the heck is supposed to be enough? And who the heck is going to make the case for Justice Kennedy lacking "highest intellectual and personal excellence?" Not me.

I think Kennedy's likely propensities were apparent from well before he joined the Supreme Court, notwithstanding his highest intellectual and personal excellence. He was Ed Meese's friend at least as far back as 1966. It would be interesting to know just how open ended and thorough White House vetting actually was, but the true nature of such matters seem to be closed to history.

Nor does David Frum's claim that Anthony Kennedy was "transformed" by anger, abuse, sweet little inducements and blandishments make any sense at all. Such a "transformation" would have to have been completed in record time. Webster V. Reproductive Health Services, which affirmed the central holdings of Roe v. Wade and was quite clearly a product of the judge Anthony Kennedy is today, was decided July 3, 1989, where the Senate unanimously confirmed Kennedy on February 3, 1988 and he took the oaths of office a few days later. That means Mr. Frum's posited "transformation" was complete in less than a year and a half - the paint was probably still wet on the walls of Anthony Kennedy's new offices in the shiny white building at the base of Capitol Hill. Those must have been some jim-crackin' angers, abuses, sweet inducements and blandishments to work that fast. Perhaps Mr. Frum has a "transformation" in mind like something out of Invasion of the Body Snatchers (take your pick of the version), with Justice Stevens, perhaps, placing a quasi-liberal pod outside the new justice's door while he took his first in-office nap.

No. Anthony Kennedy was no "stealth candidate." Nor was he "transformed" by anger, abuse, sweet inducements and blandishments. There are no pod people. Something else went seriously wrong. For those interested in finding out what went wrong, the right place to start looking is Ed Meese and the long-ago vetting of Anthony Kennedy. But making up fancy, tart myths and names to explain the mistake that is Anthony Kennedy doesn't help answer the question of whether Harriet Miers should sit on that Court - a question I have still not answered in my own mind.

UPDATE: John Fund points out that there seems to have been a breakdown in the White House vetting process that produced the nomination of Harriet Miers. The whole disturbing column is worth reading. Some excerpts:

Not only did the vetting fail to anticipate skepticism about her lack of experience in constitutional law or the firestorm of criticism from conservatives, but it left the White House scrambling to provide reporters with even the most basic information about the closed-mouthed nominee. Almost every news story seemed to catch the White House off guard and unprepared. ....

A real vetting process involves sitting down with potential nominees and grilling them with hard-charging and probing questions that go beyond the existing paper trail--or, in the case of Harriet Miers, the lack of a paper trail. .... Even though several highly regarded female lawyers were on Mr. Bush's short list, President Bush and Mr. Card discussed the idea of adding Ms. Miers. Mr. Card was enthusiastic about the idea. The New York Times reported that he "then directed Ms. Miers' deputy . . . to vet her behind her back."

For about two weeks, [William K. Kelley, the deputy White House counsel who had been appointed to his post only the month before] conducted a vetting he has described to friends as thorough. It wasn't. A former Justice Department official calls it "barely adequate for a nominee to a federal appeals court." One Texas lawyer called by the White House was struck by the fact "that the people who were calling about someone from Texas and serving a Texas president knew so little about Texas." (Mr. Kelley didn't return my telephone calls.)

It is unlikely that the vetting fully explored issues surrounding Ms. Miers that are sure to figure in her confirmation hearings, such as her work as Mr. Bush's personal lawyer. Another issue will involve Ms. Miers's tenure as head of the Texas Lottery Commission ....

The failure to complete and act on a standard, thorough vetting of Kennedy, Souter and O'Connor probably explains their later performances on the Court a lot more than calling them "stealth candidates" or any insidious post-appointment "transformation" - by anger, abuse, sweet inducements and blandishments or otherwise. A bad vetting process doesn't in itself mean a bad candidate - as Mr. Fund notes with respect to Dick Cheney, whose own bad vetting for Vice President worked out fine. But a bad vetting does mean that the president doesn't have all the data he could have in evaluating the nominee, and greatly increases the odds that things will go seriously wrong.

My guess is that the vetting of Anthony Kennedy was abbreviated at the direction of Ed Meese. I also guess that the vetting of Sandra Day O'Connor was abbreviated in reliance on William Rehnquist, although obviously Mr. Rehnquist was not in a position to direct the White House to cut short her vetting. As for Souter, I am told he simply out and out lied to his prime vetter, Lee Liberman Otis, whose career has been severely impaired by the consequences. Was it nice of Justice Souter to lie his way to the top while damaging Lee Liberman Otis so much? No. Did Souter tell his friend Sununu what he was planning to do to Ms. Liberman? Sununu is said to be too arrogant to talk about the disaster. As Daddy Warbucks famously said, you don't have to worry about how you treat people on the way up if you're never coming down. Lifetime tenure assured Justice Souter - and every successful Supreme Court nominee - that he was never coming down. That makes the vetting process for Supreme Court justices even more important. Trust but verify. So it's very strange that the basic process seems to have been curtailed in the case of Harriet Miers, and probably with respect to several other Republican candidates now on the Court.

As far as I can tell, the Clintons didn't cut short their vetting. So perhaps it's not surprising that the two justices appointed by Bill Clinton haven't disappointed the Democrats at all. Sure Justices Breyer and Ginsburg seem to be mostly visionless technocrats. But they're also safe, liberal votes who don't get fooled or seduced.

Posted 7:01 PM by Robert

Political Lunacy

A presidential panel sets out to provide the perfect paradigm. It's the only realistic explanation. There is simply no other way one can explain recommendations like this:

President George W. Bush's tax advisory panel, rejecting a fundamental overhaul, agreed to recommend limiting tax breaks for homeowners and employer- provided health-care benefits to help pay for repealing the alternative minimum tax.

The panel, meeting in Washington today, agreed the current $1 million cap on deductible mortgage interest should be reduced, possibly to about $350,000, and that the deduction should yield no more than a 25 percent tax savings, down from a top savings now of about 35 percent.

Of course, there is always the outside chance that the panel is bored, and just wants to see the spectacle of all those over-extended homeowners plunged into newly-tightened bankruptcy - and ultimately, foreclosure on those many homes! One could certainly achieve that result quickly by making mortgage payments more burdensome by reducing the tax benefits of home ownership. And it might be fun for some people to watch the lending-institution and mortgage-securitization-market collapse, and likely general economic Armageddon. But it seems like rather expensive entertainment.

Of course, there is talk of a "transition period" that would supposedly allow existing homeowners to keep their benefits ... it's just when they (or their foreclosing lenders) try to re-sell their homes that the roof would fall in.

And as for reducing the tax benefits of healthcare plans? It makes some economic sense ... but politically? Well, snowballs ... hell ... that kind of thing. Mohit Ghose, vice president of public affairs at America's Health Insurance Plans was understated: "Voters are sending a very clear message that they do not support changing the tax status of employer-sponsored or employer- provided health care.'' You might say.

Panel Vice Chairman John Breaux, a Democrat and former senator from Louisiana, said he realized both proposals may lack "political appeal" in Congress. "Our job is to make bold proposals without regard of the politics." Maybe. Or maybe Mr. Breaux wants to make the rest of the country resemble the current state of the southern portions of his home state.

Or perhaps the panel just didn't want to repeal the Alternative Minimum Tax in the first place?

Why didn't the panel just propose to pay for the repeal of the AMT by closing the Washington Monument and similar venues? It would have been more likely and realistic.

Posted 6:24 PM by Robert

Double Whammy

Don Luskin correctly characterizes this "awesome posting from EU Rota" noting that the OECD Factbook indicates that US governments spend more per capita on health care than almost any European country, with the lowest tax wedge. As Rota and the OECD factbook show, the comparison is even more telling if one considers private healthcare expenditures in addition to government expenditures.

But, of course, that's the spending side. One of the canards pushed on the public in the early Clintonian era (ca 1992-1994) was the assertion that American money bought less healthcare dollar-for-dollar than European money. That assertion foundered on the rocks of studies such as the one reported in an article titled "Getting more for their dollar: a comparison of the NHS with California's Kaiser Permanente" by Richard G A Feachem, Neelam K Sekhri, Karen L White, that appeared in the journal British Medical Journal a few years back, and found:

The widely held beliefs that the [British National Helth Service] NHS is efficient and that poor performance in certain areas is largely explained by underinvestment are not supported by this analysis. Kaiser achieved better performance at roughly the same cost as the NHS because of integration throughout the system, efficient management of hospital use, the benefits of competition, and greater investment in information technology.

Obviously, not all US medical care is provided by Kaiser and not all European healthcare is provided by the NHS. But Kaiser is a pretty representative American HMO, the NHS is a pretty representative European national healthcare system - and Kaiser and the NHS are the two systems that the Clintonian propogandists chose to compare when it suited their purposes. The study therefore strongly suggests that the American medical system may well be more efficient than its European competitors on a dollar-per-dollar basis. One can now add to that likelihood that the US is also expending more of those dollars in the first place - as EU Rota notes from the Factbook figures.

More dollars. Probably more medical care per dollar. Sweet.

Posted 9:33 AM by Robert

Which Way, Anthony?

I have still not made up my mind about Harriet Miers, but I continue to be surprised by some of the arguments and assertions being made in connection with her nomination. Consider these three examples, each written by a very sensible conservative with presumably nearly-adjoining offices:

John Fund (writing in OpinionJournal):

From term limits to abortion to the juvenile death penalty to the overturning of a state referendum on gay rights, Justice Kennedy has often disappointed conservatives.

Brendan Miniter (writing in OpinionJournal):

The shortcoming of stealth candidates has long been apparent. Anthony Kennedy, whom President Reagan nominated after Judge Bork's defeat, hasn't moved the court to the right.

James Taranto (writing in OpinionJournal):

As this chart shows, Thomas and Scalia were in full agreement in only 68% of cases in the 2004-05 term; the two justices who most often agreed fully, William Rehnquist and Anthony Kennedy, did so 77% of the time.

Justice Kennedy replaced Lewis Powell on the Court. Powell is a justice universally described as voting to the left of Justice Rehnquist. Unquestionably conservative William Rehnquist and Anthony Kennedy voted the same way more any other other pair of justices - a full 77% of the time.

Yet we are to conclude that Anthony Kennedy hasn't moved the Court to the right and should be viewed for purposes of the Miers nomination analysis mostly as having often disappointed conservatives? Yes, Anthony Kennedy has sometimes performed badly, especially recently. And he has at least from Webster been much too sensitive to media considerations.

But 77% is still a very big percentage.

Posted 10:58 PM by Robert

Which Way, Harriet?

Many of the concerns about Harriet Miers are based on the assumption that an articulated and coherent constitutional vision - which Ms. Miers is said not to possess - offers better assurances against what might be called "message drift" than generally "conservative" constitutional views. David Frum believes that Ms. Miers will remain a conservative justice for a while, "But then the Bushies will have gone home, and she will develop new friends, and then the inevitable tug to the left may prove irresistible." Such message drift marked (I would say "marred") the tenures of Justices Blackmun and O'Connor, for example.

There is surely something to this thought, but it has its limitations, as a review of the career of Justice Frankfurter indicates. Frankfurter was not exactly without intimate familiarity with the constitution before his appointment, and he was a famous liberal. But things didn't really turn out that way:

Despite his liberal political leanings, Frankfurter became the court's most outspoken advocate of judicial restraint, the view that courts should not interpret the fundamental law, the constitution, in such a way as to impose sharp limits upon the authority of the legislative and executive branches. In this philosophy, Frankfurter was heavily influenced by his close friend and mentor Oliver Wendell Holmes, Jr., who had taken a firm stand during his tenure on the bench against the doctrine of "economic due process". Frankfurter often cited Holmes in his opinions. In practice this meant that he was in general willing to uphold the actions of those branches against constitutional challenges so long as they did not "shock the conscience". Later in his career, this philosophy frequently put him on the dissenting side of ground-breaking decisions of the Warren court.

On the Court, Felix Frankfurter, noted liberal, became Felix Frankfurter, noted restrainer and conservative. To some extent his growing apparent "conservativism" was the result of changing times and a changed Court. But there was more to it than that. More than a few of his fellow liberals were shocked at what happened to Justice Frankfurter in his years on the Court.

For the sake of clarity, I have not yet made up my mind about Harriet Miers' nomination, and the above comments are not intended to persuade anyone that she should be confirmed. At this point, I am interested in weighing the various arguments made for or against her - including the limitations of those arguments.

Posted 5:08 PM by Robert

Final Chapter In The Fall Of The House Of Eisner: The Last Of Michael

A few days ago, Walt Disney Company, as a securities "Registrant," filed a fairly routine Report of Form 8-K/A with the Securities and Exchange Commission detailing the terms of its engagement of Robert Iger as its Chief Executive Officer. At the very end of that filing, almost as an afterthought, appears this bit of Plain English:

In addition, on September 30, 2005, Michael D. Eisner tendered his resignation from the Board of Directors of the Registrant, effective immediately. Mr. Eisner's status as Chief Executive Officer of the Registrant ended at the conclusion of the Registrant's fiscal year on October 1, 2005, and he no longer provides any services for the Registrant.

And so it ended. One of the most storied - and, ultimately, troubled - relationships in the history of the American entertainment industry was done. The language conveying Mr. Eisner's termination to the SEC records was brief, sanitary, cold, final - one could almost hear the FLUSH! He was gone.

What happened? It wasn't supposed to be that way. According to Forbes:

The statement comes on the back of Michael Eisner resigning from the board of directors last Friday--surprising, since he'd been expected to stay there until next year. And although he's entitled to, the ex-CEO will apparently not serve as a consultant to the company; perhaps symbolically conveying that his influence is well and truly history.

Not only was Mr. Eisner entitled to stay as a consultant, he was expected to stay as a consultant.

Word from inside Disney is that Mr. Eisner's decision to sever all ties with the company turned on questions of office draperies and the like. Multi-billion dollar companies sometimes choose to express themselves in their dealings with their former CEO's and Chairs (and then-current director and still largest insider individual stockholder, by far) through indirect means not all that unlike the means commonly employed by grumpy spouses ... or children. It seems that negotiations between Mr. Eisner and Disney broke down as the company objected to his choice of the office he was to occupy as a consultant, to his support staff, to the cost of decorating the office - and, yes, to the draperies he wished to install. There was a row. Eventually, Mr. Eisner got the idea that the company wasn't really all that happy to have him around in any capacity, and wasn't about to make him comfortable or treat him well. Since remaining as a consultant would have subjected him to a rather burdensome "non-compete" agreement, and the company was making it rather clear through trivial, humiliating negotiation points that he wasn't welcome anyway, he decided to quit. This way, Mr. Eisner keeps his options open: He could even become the voice of a competing TV mouse.

It all ended not with a bang, but with a squeak.