Posted 12:43 AM by Robert

Some Questions Regarding Herr Doktor Professor Paul Von Krugman's Wages Theory

What Herr Doktor Professor Paul Von Krugman wrote in his October 6, 2006 column The War Against Wages:

So what's keeping paychecks down? Major employers like Wal-Mart have decided that their interests are best served by treating workers as a disposable commodity, paid as little as possible and encouraged to leave after a year or two. And these employers don't worry that angry workers will respond to their war on wages by forming unions, because they know that government officials, who are supposed to protect workers' rights, will do everything they can to come down on the side of the wage-cutters.

What the New York Times reports on the front page today:

After four years in which pay failed to keep pace with price increases, wages for most American workers have begun rising significantly faster than inflation. .... The average hourly wage for workers below management level - everyone from school bus drivers to stockbrokers - rose 2.8 percent from October 2005 to October of this year, after being adjusted for inflation, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Only a year ago, it was falling by 1.5 percent. .... The fall in unemployment to 4.4 percent and the recent surge in wages, however, raise the prospect that the job market could be on the brink of another strong run, much like the one that lifted incomes in the late 1990s.

Of course, "wages" are just one component of overall compensation, which includes a variety of other expensive and valuable benefits. "Wages" and "paychecks" matter more than they should to Herr Doktor Professor and the Times generally; indeed, they are drawn to "wage" and "paycheck" arguments like moths to flames. There is, for example, no disclaimer or distinction made between of "wages" or "paychecks" and "overall compensation" in either Herr Doktor Professor's October column or in today's "news" article. On the other hand, nobody seems to have a good grasp on what is happening to true worker compensation in the United States - including people who focus on overall compensation. So although one can go far criticizing Herr Doktor Professor and the Times broadly on this count, I prefer to ask a far narrower question today:

If, as Herr Doktor Professor says, what had been keeping paychecks down was major employers like Wal-Mart having decided that their interests are best served by treating workers as a disposable commodity, paid as little as possible and encouraged to leave after a year or two, then does the recent rise in paychecks reported today in the Times mean that major employers abandoned or softened that approach? Have those major employers decided since October 6 that their interests are not best served by treating workers as a disposable commodity? If so, why? Why now?

And, most importantly of all: Why does the Times' "news" article, which takes up plenty of column inches with various analyses of why wages have fluctuated, not even mention Herr Doktor Professor's key theoretical insight into the main cause of wage stagnation?

Sheesh, you'd almost think that the economic reporters at the Times don't care a bit about what Herr Doktor Professor has to say on this topic. Surely that can't be true. Can it?

Just asking.

Posted 8:06 AM by Robert

The New York Times Sinks Into A Florida Swamp

Even by the low standards of New York Times economic reporting, David Leonhardt's article in today's edition surely reaches a new low in breathlessly announcing:

The truth is that the official numbers on house prices — the last refuge of soothing information about the real estate market on the coasts — are deeply misleading. ... In reality, homes across much of Florida, California and the Northeast are worth a lot less than they were a year ago.

Unlike Mr. Leonhardt, the Man Without Qualities takes no position on what the "truth" or "reality" of the current residential real property market may be. I have no idea what the real estate market is doing right now, and (again unlike Mr. Leonhardt) I have no idea where to look for that "truth" and "reality" other than in those admittedly imperfect statistics reporting actual sales that he finds so unworthy.

But I do know this: Auctions of houses of the type described in this article generally produce prices quite a bit lower than what could be obtained if the house were marketed in the usual way. That's why the "usual way" is "usual." So it is nothing short of idiotic for Mr. Leonhardt and the Times to look to such an auction in Naples, Florida for the "truth" and "reality" of the housing market in the "finding" that "on average, the houses that changed hands at the auction had fallen about 25 percent in value since 2005."

Here's a hint for Mr. Leonhardt and his handlers at the Times: Pretty much any competent realtor or probate or bankruptcy attorney will tell you that an auctioned house brings in about 25% less than the then-current market value of the home - although the statistical spread can be wide. This effect is not a secret. Many home buyers look to buy homes from probate sales, for example, even in the absence of an auction. But "normal buyers" generally don't go to such auctions - only speculators and bottom fishers normally go. One reason for that is that unlike normal real property sales such auctions allow for no financing or any other contingencies. In other words, don't even think about making a bid at such an auction and then going to your bank for the appraisal and loan and detailed home inspection. At an auction, you pretty much just write the check for the full purchase price on your way out the auction house door. That kind of thing tends to push prices down - and a 25% reduction on usual market prices is a pretty good result in a house auction.

Since the auction described by the Times yielded prices about 25% off year-ago prices, the auction appears to actually suggests that the Naples single family home market has not changed much over the last year. But Mr. Leonhardt completely misses all of that.

Of course, Mr. Leonhardt does not just rely on this one auction for his conclusion that the "truth" and "reality" is that home prices are in free fall. No, no, no. He also quotes a few realtors, who opine that in their local markets the "truth" and "reality" is that home prices are in free fall without any supporting data whatsoever, and despite government and other statistics to the contrary. And, despite his reliance on realtor oracles, Mr. Leonhardt apparently never asked his realtor contacts what the normal relationship is between the prices of auctioned homes and homes sold in the usual way - an enquiry that would have deflated his Naples example.

So economic reporting in the New York Times has come to relying on what realtors tell the reporter. No support required. No follow up questions. Just like that.

Could the Times go any lower?