Man Without Qualities

Friday, September 10, 2004

You're Too Modest!

The Associated Press reports on its new poll:

Among all registered voters, Bush-Cheney led the Democratic ticket 51 percent to 43 percent, a modest bounce in support since early August, when Kerry-Edwards led 48-45 percent.

So according to this AP poll, among registered voters Bush-Cheney has gone from being 3% behind Kerry-Edwards to an 8% lead (51% to 43%). That's an 11% "bounce" in the relative standings of the candidates.

Is 11% a "modest" bounce?

One curious aspect of this poll is that it records Bush-Cheney as doing better among registered voters than the ticket does among likely voters. That's contrary to virtually all other polls. The definition of "registered voters" is determined by state law, but definitions of "likely voters" are seldom fully disclosed and are creatures of the posters' policies. My guess is that the AP, which has been increasingly partisan with a Democratic slant, has caused a poll to be created that incorporates a definition of "likely voters" that simply jerks the turnout towards the Democrats.

Time may tell. But at this stage in the campaign we are still so far out from the election date that actual election results will not definitively demonstrate any deficiencies in the polling methodology. The pollsters are much freer to run rampant.

Comments: Post a Comment