|Man Without Qualities
Wednesday, June 29, 2005
The Most Important Export Of The United States II
There has been much speculation over the persistent United States trade deficit and the corresponding relatively high level of the dollar against Asian currencies. In that regard, it is interesting to ask how much a wealthy Chinese person might be willing to pay to escape from this political risk by placing assets in the United States and holding American currency:
BEIJING - Thousands of Chinese rioted in a dispute sparked by a lopsided roadside brawl, set fire to cars and wounded six police officers in an outburst likely to worry communist leaders in Beijing desperate to cling on to power. ....The violence was the latest in a series of protests which the Communist Party, in power since 1949, fears could spin out of control and become a channel for anger over corruption and a growing gap between rich and poor..... The local Chizhou Daily newspaper reported six policemen were injured by stones, news Web site www.sina.com.cn said.I continue to believe that the element of developing third world political risk has been given far too little emphasis in most analyses of the United States trade deficit and the strength of the dollar.
Moreover, the questions raised in this arena lead to the potentially fundamental question: Is there a (possibly subtle and non-standard) form of Japanese political risk that has been, and is being, largely ignored in connection with the persistent Japanese trade surplus with the United States? My guess is that the correct answer is "yes."
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