Posted 4:04 PM by Robert

Black Arts

Reading public opinion polls is among the darkest of the modern black arts of politics. But it can be fun if it is not taken too seriously. Some recent poll results are out, and there are some interesting suggestions in them.

For example, the FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll for Aug. 6-7, 2002 asked all registered voters (not likely voters) "Thinking ahead to the 2004 presidential elections, if the elections were held today, for whom do you think you would vote if the candidates were?" In a Bush/Gore rematch, the August, 2002 results were Bush 50% to Gore 37%, where the corresponding December 2001 results were Bush 61% to Gore 23%, and the corresponding June 2001 results were Bush 50% to Gore 38%. That might be read a bad news for Bush, since these results suggest that the boost he received in the aftermath of September 11 has worn off.

But if there is one lesson we should have learned from the fall of the current President's father and the irrelevance of his post-Gulf war poll numbers, it is that the current President is not going to be re-elected on the basis of a post-September 11 afterglow and that whatever boost that afterglow gave his poll numbers will come down.

So it seems to me that the more interesting feature of this poll is that January 2001 results were Bush 39% to Gore 36% - immediately following their bitterly contested election. But by June 2001 (long before the September 11 disasters) Bush had widened the gap to Bush 50% to Gore 38%, as noted above - and bush continues to enjoy what amount to favorable new-President "honeymoon" ratings, even long after the "honeymoon" period has ended and even in the face of the Democrat assault predicated on the July decline in the stock markets.

Also interesting is that Hillary Clinton has lost considerable ground in a hypothetical match-up with Bush, even as the media coverage has suggested that Hillary's star is on the ascent and she has played a high profile role in criticizing the President on behalf of the Democrats. In January 2001, Bush led Ms. Clinton by 45% to 34%, but by August 2002 he has widened his lead to 58% to 28%. What's going on there?

The polls also suggest that Al Gore's lock on the Democratic nomination may be becoming all but absolute. From mid-July 2002 to the beginning of August 2002, the percentage of Democrats saying they will vote for Gore in the primaries rose from 38% to 41% - with his nearest challenger being Tom Daschle at 9%! This rise in Gore's "inevitability" corresponds with vastly nastier and more vigorous criticism of him from within the Democratic Party (including Senator Lieberman) and those in its orbit, such as the New York Times. Many Democrats seem to see Mr. Gore looming in their futures as an inevitable disaster - and some, such as the Times and Senator Lieberman, are making a last-ditch effort to do something about it, including inducing once-faithful Gore donors to back off. But if Gore really has become inevitable, doesn't all this anti-Gore activity within Democrat ranks just create a greater risk of a damaged, bitter, underfunded, schismatic Democratic Party once Gore accomplishes the inevitable?

The Ipsos-Reid/Cook Political Report Poll for August 16-18, 2002 asked: "If the election were held today, would you definitely vote to reelect George W. Bush as president, consider voting for someone else, or definitely vote for someone else as president?"

............................................Definitely Bush..........Consider Someone Else............Vote For Someone Else............Not Sure
......................................................%..............................%............................................%...................................%
8/16-18/02.....................................41..............................27............................................29...................................3
8/2-4/02.........................................41.............................30.............................................27...................................2

....

6/21-23/02......................................49..............................26............................................22....................................3


This is a curious question. Why is everyone not in the second column? Personally, the Man Without Qualities would definitely consider voting for someone other than George Bush. Why not? So my vote would go in the second column. But it would unwise for the Democrats to seek much comfort in that.

What is also striking to the Man Without Qualities is that the number of people who say they will definitely vote for Bush over anyone else plus the number of people who say they will only "consider" voting for someone else (which one would hope is the norm in any democratic republic) is still fully sixty-eight percent of all registered voters - down from seventy-five percent in June 2001. It is my understanding of polls that when one shifts to "likely voters" from "all registered voters," the Republican showing tends to improve. How could they? These numbers already seem akin to the voting results in the old Soviet Union.

Similarly, the Zogby America Poll for July 19-21, 2002 asked: "Do you think President Bush deserves to be reelected or do you think it is time for someone new?"

...................................................Deserves Reelection..............Someone New......................Not Sure
................................................................%..................................%......................................%
7/02..........................................................47..................................32.....................................21
6/02..........................................................51..................................28.....................................20

This question is even more peculiar than the Ipsos-Reid/Cook question because by omitting the phrase "If the election were held today..." the question seems to invite the respondent to evaluate whether, solely on the basis of what has occurred to date, the President "deserves re-election" almost regardless of what happens in the next two years. Or, conversely, to decide whether, solely on the basis of what has occurred to date, someone new "deserves election," also almost regardless of what happens in the next two years. Why is everyone not in the third column? And what is the respondent to make of the phrase "it is time" where the "time" won't occur for more than two years?

In any event, it is striking that about half of all registered voters think the President already "deserves re-election." If half of the "not sure" 21% broke each way, Bush would receive over 57% of the vote - a near landslide, and about ten percentage points more than he received in the 2000 election.

And then there are those curious "approval" ratings - which are sampled not just from voters, but from "Americans 18 & older." The Investor's Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor poll says Bush's "job approval" rating dropped to 61% (with 27% disapproving) for the period August 5 through 9 from 65% (with 22% disapproving) for the period July 8 though 11.

The CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll for August 5 through 8 says 68% approve (26% disapprove), down from the July 9 though 11 results of 73% approval (21% disapproving).

Bush's related (but not the same) "favorability" ratings for August 5 through 9 are 57% favorable (29% unfavorable) according to the Investor's Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor poll, but were an astronomical 72% favorable (22% unfavorable) according to the FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll for August 6 -7, up from 69% favorable (19% unfavorable) for June 4-5.

There are various ways to construe these results. But considering the continuing fade of the post September 11 afterglow, the almost terrifying behavior of the stock markets, the rising reports of corporate scandals in July, and the full-scale effort the President's political critics waged against him on the basis of such developments, Mr. Bush's numbers seem remarkably sturdy. More interestingly, their positive qualities seem increasingly independent of disproportionate influence from September 11.