Man Without Qualities

Tuesday, October 07, 2003

Davis Descending LXI: The Dying Fall

DRUDGE reports that exit polls show the recall passing by 59% , with 51% backing Arnold Schwarzenegger, a meager 30% for Cruz Bustamante and 13% for Tom McClintock.

Which means that sixty four percent of voters chose a Republican.

That alone should concentrate the minds of state and national Democrats (although - also according to DRUDGE - this most recent Democratic disaster apparently has had the opposite affect on Terry McAuliffe - much like the prior disaster of 2002).

But the most disturbing thing for the Democrats should be something that is only indirectly reflected in these numbers: The same polls that predicted this actual election result pretty well also predicted that if Mr. Schwarzenegger had left the race, McClintock would have become governor with 56% of the vote. That strongly indicates that Mr. Schwarzenegger's success is not just a matter of personality and moderate v. more conservative policies.

I would say to look for Mr. McClintock to make a good run at Barbara Boxer in her next Senate election.

As for Cruz Bustamante, pehaps this is the end of his political career - although he remains the second executive of the state and may act as governor whenever the real governor is not on California soil. Mr. Schwarzenegger had better keep that in mind in his coming duels with the Democratic legislature.

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