Posted 3:56 PM by Robert

Some Polls

A slightly surprisingly large fuss was made over the recent Marist College Poll covering Oct. 27-29, 2003, that indicated 44% of those polled "definitely" plan to vote against George Bush for reelection as president in 2004 (among other things).

The fuss was slightly surprising because much of it came after the announcement made subsequent to the polling period that the third quarter gross domestic product annual growth rate had come in at 7.2% (subject to possible revision). Obviously, that "definitely" is subject to variations in the economic peformance.

Well, a new Zogby Poll for November 3-5 asked the question:

"If the election for president were held today, for whom would you vote: the Republican George W. Bush or the Democratic candidate?"

The results were as follows:

......................George
......................W. Bush............................Democrat..................................Other....................................Not Sure
...........................%.....................................%.............................................%...........................................%
11/3-5/03.........41.....................................41.............................................2.............................................16
10/15-18/03.....43.....................................45.............................................1.............................................12
9/22-24/03.......41.....................................45.............................................3.............................................12


Since the margin of error for this poll (MoE) is ± 3.2, all of the variation from September could be flukish. But the apparent four-percentage point drop in Democratic support in such a short period is suggestive. It's also consistent with another Zogby result from the same November 3-5 period:

"Do you think President Bush deserves to be reelected or do you think it is time for someone new?"


.................................Deserves Reelection....................................Someone New....................................Not Sure
.............................................%..............................................................%....................................................%
11/3-5/03............................43..............................................................49....................................................8
10/15-18/03........................42..............................................................50....................................................8
9/22-24/03..........................43..............................................................49....................................................8
9/3-5/03..............................40..............................................................52....................................................8

Again, the MoE here could absorb many indicated variations. But the shift from 40-52% against the President in 9/3-5/03 to 43-49% against him for 11/3-5/03 is significant: he has halved the gap, cutting it by 6 points.

Of course, as some commenters have pointed out, the jobs numbers may have more political effect than the GDP numbers.

Which suggests that the next few rounds of polls - the ones that will reflect the most recent employment numbers - should be even more interesting.

Although Democrats may want to take a Prozac before reading up next time.