Man Without Qualities

Wednesday, January 07, 2004

Brokering To Come

Roger L. Simon predicts that the Democrats will nominate Wesley Clark (link thanks to Instapundit).

I don't think that's far fetched at all. Yes, Dean is leading the Democratic pack nationally and in key states. But he still only commands almost everywhere support well short of fifty percent - and delegates to the Democratic convention who are chosen in primaries and caucuses will be allocated proportionately.

Then there are the "superdelegates" - who are not chosen in primaries or caucuses. In fact, they've already been chosen. And they are not bound to any candidate. Although more of them now favor Dr. Dean than any other candidate, he is still favored by far less than a majority - and his relatively favor could change at any time.

All of which means there is a very good chance that neither Howard Dean nor anyone else will carry a majority into the Boston Convention in July. And there is a very good chance that nobody will obtain the nomination on the first delegate vote.

And, after that, it's all brokering.

So why not Clark?

Comments: Post a Comment