|Man Without Qualities|
Monday, April 19, 2004
Pathetic ... And Bound To Lose XXVII: With Friends Like These ...
The mainstream media has, of course, been in a feeding frenzy recently with tendentious reporting on the banal goings-on at the 9-11 Commission and various opportunistic books. Gary Trudeau is even planning to give the left leg of a main character from long-unfunny-but-this-is-ridiculous Doonesbury in the effort.
And Bush floats up.
John Zogby chimes in with some commentary apparently designed to cement his reputation as one of the nation's most unreliable major pollsters:
The survey, taken Friday through Sunday, showed Bush leading Kerry 51% to 46% among likely voters, slightly wider than the 3-point lead he held in early April. The shifts were within the margin of error of +/ 4 percentage points in the sample of likely voters. (Complete poll results) The president's job approval rating was steady at 52%. Analysts in both parties say the lack of movement underscores how polarized the electorate is. Seven months before Election Day, they say, most people's minds are made up. "I don't think anything barring a major calamity of some sort will have much of an impact between now and November," independent pollster John Zogby says. "The nation is split...down the middle." A new Zogby International Poll taken over the weekend showed Kerry ahead, 47% to 44%, virtually unchanged from early April.
This is flatly wrong. The main tides of this campaign are flowing dramatically in favor of Mr. Bush, and those tides have not fully risen at all - meaning that barring a major calamity of some sort a great many people will be changing their minds in favor of the President between now and election day. As reported by the Washington Post, just by way of example :
On the economy, Bush has erased a 12-point Kerry edge and is tied with the Massachusetts senator on who is best able to deal with the country's economic problems.
In all likelihood (but not with complete certainty, of course) the economy and the natiuon's jobs picture will continue to improve through election day - and that improvement is not yet reflected in the polls. Another few months of such economic reports and barring a major calamity of some sort Mr. Bush's poll ratings will soar. Another example: a lot of people still don't "know" Senator Kerry, but the more they get to "know" him the less they like him. That process is not yet complete - which means that barring a major calamity of some sort the Senator's personal standing with the electorate will sink.
Barring a major calamity of some sort this is not looking one bit like a close election.
Not one bit.
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