Posted 11:17 PM by Robert

Believing Mr. Zogby

According to the Zogby Poll [Zogby/WSJ** 8/30-9/3], which for some reason the Wall Street Journal has been featuring regularly, John Kerry trails George Bush by a scant 1.7% in Arkansas and actually leads by .4% in Missouri.

Yet Kerry-Edwards doesn't seem to believe Arkansas or Missouri is even worth an ad:

Bowing to political realities, Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry has canceled plans to begin broadcasting television commercials in Arizona, Arkansas, Louisiana and the perennial battleground of Missouri.

That decision seems to provide some insight into how serious professionals who actually have to ration campaign resources view Mr. Zogby's state-by-state polling.

These state-by-state polls are internet based polls (Zogby also conducts other polls by telephone). Salon has this to say about the Zogby Internet polls:

The Zogby Interactive Battleground Poll -- regularly cited in the blogosphere and published on the Wall Street Journal's Web site -- is an online poll conducted via e-mail. If this sounds dubious, that's because it is. Online polling has a spotty track record and remains an unproven method for gauging public opinion.

[Salon cite and quote thanks to RealClear