Man Without Qualities

Friday, September 03, 2004

The Importance Of Being Bouncy IV

For pure entertainment it's sometimes worth looking at the Zogby Poll:

Zogby (1,011 LV) 8/12 - 8/14:..........Bush 43%.............Kerry 50%

Zogby (1001 LV) 8/30 - 9/2:............Bush 46%............Kerry 44%

So Zogby finds that Mr. Bush went from being down by 7% to being up by 2% in the two Zogby polls that seem to most closely bracket the Republican Convention (so far - perhaps there will be a true post-Convention Zogby Poll). That would give Mr. Bush a 9% Convention bounce.

But, remember, it's Zogby.

Today's Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows President Bush with 49% of the vote and Senator Kerry with 45%. Perhaps Mr. Bush will receive only this modest bounce, but the Convention effects are not yet completely reflected in the Rasmussen Poll, which explains:

Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll is reported on a three-day rolling average basis. Very few of the interviews for today's report were completed after the President's speech last night. Most were completed before the speeches given on Wednesday by Senator Zell Miller and Vice President Dick Cheney.

UPDATE: TIME says Bush-Cheney now leads by 11% in its poll. That's also an 11% bounce. The bouncing process is not yet complete even for this one poll because much of the poll was taken before President Bush's speech on Thursday night.

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