|Man Without Qualities|
Saturday, September 18, 2004
Taking Gallup Seriously For A Moment II
A perceptive reader e-mails to provide two more factors that suggest a big, early Bush-Cheney win would come with unusually large Republican coat tails. The first factor (see below) seems to have applicability only to a race such as this one in which there is a minor third candidate (Nader). The second seems to have more general applicability - although one might reasonably expect it to apply more strongly to a bigger and earlier win:
1) If it looks like Bush will win big, some Democrats and leftists will give up on Kerry but "vote their conscience" for Nader, while still voting Democrat for state and local races.
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