Man Without Qualities

Saturday, September 18, 2004

Taking Gallup Seriously For A Moment II

A perceptive reader e-mails to provide two more factors that suggest a big, early Bush-Cheney win would come with unusually large Republican coat tails. The first factor (see below) seems to have applicability only to a race such as this one in which there is a minor third candidate (Nader). The second seems to have more general applicability - although one might reasonably expect it to apply more strongly to a bigger and earlier win:

1) If it looks like Bush will win big, some Democrats and leftists will give up on Kerry but "vote their conscience" for Nader, while still voting Democrat for state and local races.

2) Oddly, many people treat elections as a sort of horse race: they want to pick a winner. This is shown in post-election polls, where greater percentages of voters report they voted for the winner than actually did. If it looks like Bush is certain to win, some undecideds will break for Bush on this alone.

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